SWODY1
SPC AC 191614
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CST WED DEC 19 2007
VALID 191630Z - 201200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EAST TX AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL LA...
..TX/LA...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER AZ IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD
AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
OVER EAST TX WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN...HELPING TO TRANSPORT GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND ESTABLISHING A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE AREA. BY EVENING...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA. INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL
ALSO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS...YIELDING MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
OVER MUCH OF EAST TX AND WESTERN LA AFTER 06Z.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
WILL HELP INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF EAST TX...SPREADING ACROSS LA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUFFICIENT COMBINATION OF ELEVATED
CAPE...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A
RISK OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALSO POSE A RISK OF TORNADOES IN THOSE STORMS THAT
ARE SURFACE-BASED.
.HART.. 12/19/2007
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