SWODY1
SPC AC 191302
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 AM CST WED DEC 19 2007
VALID 191300Z - 201200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS E TX INTO LA...
..NW GULF COAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL PROGRESS EWD TO THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID
LEVEL WAVE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR TODAY OVER THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ESEWD OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE DEVELOPING
CYCLONE...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S WILL
SPREAD INLAND FROM THE WRN GULF TO E TX/LA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL LAPSE NEAR 7 C/KM WILL OVERSPREAD
THE MOIST SECTOR FROM THE W...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPE
FROM 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS E TX THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL EARLY
TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST WAA REGIME...NEAR AND S OF THE ARKLATEX.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION REVEAL SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR BY TONIGHT /EFFECTIVE SRH 0F 200-300 M2/S2/...ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY BASED AT OR VERY NEAR THE SURFACE. THE NET RESULT
SHOULD BE SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS. THE INITIAL
SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL BEGINNING THIS EVENING
ACROSS E TX...WITH A GRADUALLY EVOLVING AND EWD EXPANDING THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES OVERNIGHT.
.THOMPSON.. 12/19/2007
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