SWOD48
SPC AC 190949
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CST WED DEC 19 2007
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
..DISCUSSION...
LATEST MREF MEMBERS...OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL...ECMWF AND UKMET RUNS
AGREE IN GENERAL PRINCIPLE WITH DEEP SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH EVOLVING
THROUGH DAY-4/22ND-23RD...FROM SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER N-CENTRAL PACIFIC AND GULF
OF AK. THIS PROCESS SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG COLD FROPA OVER MS
VALLEY...SRN APPALACHIANS AND GULF COAST STATES DURING DAYS
4-5/22ND-24TH. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS AMONGST THOSE GUIDANCE
PACKAGES....HOWEVER...REGARDING RELATIVE IMPACT OF NRN AND SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM...AND THEIR
EFFECTS ON BOTH SFC CYCLOGENESIS AND MOIST RETURN FLOW. MOST
PROBABLE PERIOD FOR SVR EVENT APPEARS TO BE DAY-4/22ND-23RD WHEN
RELATIVELY HIGH THETAE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MOVE INLAND IN ADVANCE
OF FRONT...WITH FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WINDS OVER FAIRLY BROAD AREA.
.EDWARDS.. 12/19/2007
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