SWODY2
SPC AC 160555
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST TUE JAN 15 2008
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS....
A BROAD AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS THURSDAY...AS AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTS NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES
AND ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS SWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. NO CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITHIN THIS LARGE TROUGH DUE TO DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH TWO WEAKER UPPER WAVES THAT
WILL BE LOCATED ON THE FRINGES OF THE MAIN TROUGH.
..NRN FL PANHANDLE...
A FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE TN VALLEY NEWD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SHOULD SHIFT EWD THROUGH
THE FL PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING. MODESTLY STRONG AND VEERING
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES NEAR THE LOW CENTER WILL YIELD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AT 40 TO 50 KT AND 35 KT 1KM SHEAR...WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE WEAK...MUCAPES
LESS THAN 200 J/KG...DUE TO A MODIFIED ATLANTIC AIR MASS CIRCULATING
AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN NEW ENGLAND. NEAR THE LOW
CENTER...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS NEAR 65F ARE POSSIBLE AS RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF IS ADVECTED NEWD. THIS
SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOW/MID LEVEL
SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO...AND A LOW
END WIND/TORNADO THREAT. ANY SEVERE WEATHER THAT OCCURS WOULD LIKELY
END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE.
..SRN TX...
ANOTHER WAVE IN SRN AZ IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD INTO NRN MEXICO...
RESULTING IN ISENTROPIC LIFTING AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER
PORTIONS OF SRN/CENTRAL TX THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE WRN GULF WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATER AND A SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...STEEP
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700-450 MB MAY RESULT IN MUCAPES UP TO 200
J/KG...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT.
.IMY.. 01/16/2008
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