SWODY3
SPC AC 140753
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 AM CST MON JAN 14 2008
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. FEATURE OF
SIGNIFICANCE FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER WAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER AZ. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH MEXICO ON TUE...AND THEN BE EJECTED RAPIDLY NEWD...
WITHIN STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT...FROM FAR SRN TX INTO THE
MIDDLE TN VALLEY ON WED. MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG REMNANT WARM FRONT IN THE GULF. GIVEN
THAT THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO STRONGER
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND THE STRONGER FORCING WILL BE SHIFTING NORTH
OF THE SURFACE BAROCLINICITY WITH TIME...EXPECT SURFACE WAVE TO BE
WEAKER THAN DEPICTED BY GFS/NAM AND LOCATED IN THE NERN GULF 17/12Z.
THIS WOULD MAINTAIN WARM FRONT/SECTOR OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A MODIFIED COOL AND STABLE AIR MASS INLAND.
HOWEVER...BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES...WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WARMER AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF WATERS.
.IMY.. 01/14/2008
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