SWOD48
SPC AC 140928
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CST MON JAN 14 2008
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
..DISCUSSION...
MREF AND EURO ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OF MAINTAINING DEEPLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF STRONG
CANADIAN COLD FRONTS REINFORCING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS...WITH
LITTLE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON DAY 4/JAN 17TH/ AS A SURFACE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK/DEVELOP RAPIDLY NEWD FROM THE NERN GULF INTO THE
ERN CAROLINAS. THE LOW WILL BRING RICHER MOISTURE AT LEAST AS FAR
NWD AS FL/SERN GA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
STORMS AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN FL/SERN
GA AND PERHAPS INTO FAR ERN NC/SC. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY RISING
HEIGHTS...WEAK FORCING/INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A 30% SEVERE PROBABILITY. THEREAFTER...A COLD
AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE SERN STATES AND DIMINISH THE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
.IMY.. 01/14/2008
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