DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 120936
SWOD48
SPC AC 120936

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CST SAT JAN 12 2008

VALID 151200Z - 201200Z

..DISCUSSION...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OF EVOLVING A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
BY WED JAN 16TH. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL
SWLY FLOW FROM THE WRN GULF NEWD INTO THE SERN STATES. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE EJECTED NEWD OUT OF THIS LARGE
TROUGH AND INTO THE SERN CONUS JAN 16/17TH. AT THE SAME TIME...MAIN
LARGE SCALE FORCING IS FORECAST TO BE SITUATED WELL WEST OF THIS
AREA...OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE SERN STATES...WITH WARM FRONT REMAINING IN THE
GULF. BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD PCPN NEWD
INTO THE SERN STATES...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LOW DUE TO
WEAK FORCING/INSTABILITY.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE HIGHER ACROSS THE SERN STATES AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES JAN 18TH AND 19TH...AS MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE EJECTED ENEWD FROM THE BASE OF THE LARGER
SCALE TROUGH. HOWEVER...MODEL INCONSISTENCIES CONCERNING THE
TIMING/STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF IMPORTANT SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
FEATURES PRECLUDES A SEVERE WEATHER AREA ATTM.

.IMY.. 01/12/2008

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