SWOD48
SPC AC 250851
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 AM CST FRI JAN 25 2008
VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
..CNTRL/ERN GULF CST SVR POTENTIAL THU/THU NIGHT 31 JAN-1 FEB...
SEVERAL UPR SYSTEMS WILL EJECT ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME CONTINUES. ONE SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE WRN STATES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE NERN STATES IN THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME. LIMITED GULF MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN LOW RISKS FOR A
WIDESPREAD SVR TSTM EVENT...THOUGH ISOLD SVR TSTMS COULD OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH. COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH THIS IMPULSE
WILL LIKELY NOT TRAVERSE APPRECIABLY FAR S INTO THE GULF BASIN.
MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM...WITH FAIRLY UNANIMOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE...WILL DIG INTO THE TX BIG BEND REGION BY EARLY THU 31
JAN...THEN QUICKLY EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE TN VLY/DEEP SOUTH BY THU
NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE ERN SEABOARD BY NEXT WEEKEND. WAVELENGTH
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM AND THIS STRONG FEATURE WILL
LIKELY ALLOW MORE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. AS SUCH...GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE
TRAJECTORIES/BOUNDARY LAYER STRUCTURES...THE THREAT FOR A HIGHER END
SVR EVENT SEEMS PSBL ON THU 31 JAN OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/ERN
GULF CSTL REGION NEWD INTO THE DEEP S/LWR TN VLY.
.RACY.. 01/25/2008
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