SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250929
CAZ000-251100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0083
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CST FRI JAN 25 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 250929Z - 251100Z
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED AND ROTATING RAIN CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
INLAND INTO SOUTHWEST LA COUNTY NEXT HOUR OR SO. VERY BRIEF
WATERSPOUT/TORNADO OR WIND DAMAGE COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
OVERALL POTENTIAL APPEARS VERY LIMITED IN TIME/SPACE AND A WATCH IS
NOT LIKELY.
OCCASIONALLY STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING DOWNWIND
OF CATALINA ISLAND AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE LA BASIN EARLY TODAY.
MESOSCALE FORCING IN THE LEE OF THE ISLAND...COUPLED WITH MODEST
ONSHORE FLOW AND MOIST/SATURATED PROFILES APPEAR TO BE SUSTAINING
SUFFICIENT UPDRAFT ACCELERATIONS DESPITE ONLY WEAK CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AOB 100 J/KG. THE ISOLATED CELL CORES ARE ENCOUNTERING
ADEQUATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO ACQUIRE LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND AT LEAST
ONE WATERSPOUT CAME ASHORE LAST EVENING. WITH TERRAIN-ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL HELICITY IN THE RANGE OF 300 M2/S2..STRONGER DISCRETE UPDRAFTS
WILL CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY SPIN AND ANOTHER ISOLATED WATERSPOUT
OR TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
.CARBIN/HALES.. 01/25/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX...
33661807 33531823 33691839 33821839 33961825 34021813
33951794
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