SWODY3
SPC AC 080825
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CST FRI FEB 08 2008
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE INTENSE/COLD MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OF ARCTIC
ORIGINS WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...AS IT COMES IN PHASE WITH THE
TROUGH WITHIN THE BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES EMANATING FROM THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC. THE LARGER-SCALE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO RATHER
QUICKLY LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST STATES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
THE UPSTREAM PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
PACIFIC THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES. WITHIN THIS REGIME
..MODELS INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN
DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/ROCKIES...AS A
BUILDING RIDGE EDGES TOWARD PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A BROAD IMPULSE WITHIN THE WEAKER SUBTROPICAL STREAM
IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE ACROSS BAJA THROUGH THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND
PARTS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
A RETURN FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PROGGED TO COMMENCE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN. WHILE THE WESTERN
GULF BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN THE PROCESS OF MODIFYING FROM A RECENT
COLD INTRUSION...IT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACTED BY THE NEW ARCTIC INTRUSION. AND...MODELS INDICATE AT
LEAST A WEAK MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STEEPENING MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE NOSE A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET COULD SUPPORT WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT...A WARMING
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE LIKELY WILL CAP THE MOISTURE RETURN SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SOME RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT...WHERE/WHEN
BETTER MOISTURE INFLOW WILL DEVELOP. BUT...SIZABLE DISCREPANCIES
EXIST AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL. AND...WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE
AT THE PRESENT TIME.
.KERR.. 02/08/2008
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