SWOD48
SPC AC 080959
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CST FRI FEB 08 2008
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
..PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...
WITHIN THE BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC
..AMPLIFICATION IS PROGGED FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES LATE THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE TRANSLATING
DOWNSTREAM...ACROSS THE U.S...DURING THE COMING WORK WEEK.
HOWEVER...DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MREF/GFS AND ECMWF ARE LARGE
CONCERNING THE FLOW EVOLUTION WITH THE LEAD IMPULSE DIGGING TO THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES...AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A LEAD IMPULSE WITHIN
A WEAKER STREAM EMANATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AND...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD LINGERS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THESE
FEATURES...AND UPSTREAM PERTURBATIONS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH SUBSTANTIAL MODIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTERN STATES
WEEKEND ARCTIC INTRUSION...THIS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.
.KERR.. 02/08/2008
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