SWODY1
SPC AC 260551
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2008
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY AS A SFC TROUGH
DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND THIS WILL BRING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE QUICKLY NWD ACROSS EAST TX INTO OK BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MOIST
AXIS...A MID-LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES WILL TRANSPORT A
STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EWD ACROSS THE REGION CAPPING THE
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY
ACROSS MOST OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE IN ERN KS OR ERN OK WHERE STRONG LIFT
WILL EXIST ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET. IF A STORM CAN
DEVELOP...HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO
THE OZARKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
..OZARK PLATEAU...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY FROM SE KS EXTENDING
ENEWD INTO SCNTRL IL. MODEL FORECASTS INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COMBINED WITH LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ELEVATED...EXPANDING NEWD ACROSS THE OZARK
PLATEAU LATE THIS AFTERNOON REACHING THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS IN THE -18 TO -20C RANGE.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY HAIL POTENTIAL MARGINAL.
.BROYLES/CROSBIE.. 03/26/2008
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