SWODY2
SPC AC 260544
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2008
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY LACK OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PERTURBATIONS.
MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY APCHG COASTAL PACIFIC NW -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD FROM
N-CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY DURING PERIOD. ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WY DAY-1...THEN MOVE EWD-ESEWD ACROSS
N-CENTRAL PLAINS.
SFC FRONTAL ZONE NOW OVER OZARKS...CENTRAL OK AND WRN TX PANHANDLE
IS BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY AND SHOULD WEAKEN DAY-1...BEFORE BEING
OVERTAKEN BY LOW TRAILING SWWD FROM AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW DURING
THIS PERIOD. SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY
AND PORTIONS SRN PLAINS. DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND SSWWD FROM FRONT
ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SWRN OK AND W-CENTRAL TX.
..LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP INVOF SFC
COLD FRONT...EARLIEST POTENTIAL BEING OVER IL/INDIANA AND SHIFTING
EWD NEAR WARM FRONT THROUGH AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OH/PA...MOVING INTO
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER BUOYANCY WIDTH EWD EXTENT. OCCASIONAL HAIL AND
STG-SVR GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY...IN ENVIRONMENT
OF FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR BUT MRGL BUOYANCY. TSTMS MAY
BACKBUILD DISCRETELY SWWD ALONG OR JUST N OF SFC FRONT DURING
MID-LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPS WITH SWWD
EXTENT ABOVE SFC...ASSOCIATED WITH BASE OF ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR
MASS. HOWEVER...FRONTAL LIFT AND LARGER SFC THETAE WITH SWWD EXTENT
ACROSS SRN IL...MO AND AR MAY SUPPORT PERIOD OF LATE AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND STG GUSTS...SOME OF WHICH MAY
PERSIST INTO EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
..SRN PLAINS...
SVR POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION IS STRONGLY CONDITIONAL...WITH
STOUT CAPPING LIKELY TO RESTRICT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
SUBSTANTIALLY...AND TO CONFINE WHATEVER TSTMS MAY DEVELOP TO ALONG
OR JUST N OF SFC FRONT. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD STILL IS EVIDENT
AMONGST OPERATIONAL WRF/SPECTRAL...AS WELL AS VARIOUS SREF
MEMBERS...REGARDING POSITION OF SFC FRONT DURING LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS IS CRITICAL TO MORE NARROWLY
DEFINING/CONCENTRATING SVR THREAT...GIVEN STRONG CAPPING REASONABLY
PROGGED ACROSS THIS REGION. PRIND LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT
MID-UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL PASS OVER THIS REGION DURING
PERIOD OF PEAK SFC THETAE TO FURTHER SUPPORT POTENTIAL.
NONETHELESS...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
EVOLUTION...AND RESULTANT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...WITH ANY TSTMS THAT
CAN DEVELOP. EXPECT STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...SFC DEW POINTS
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F IN MUCH OF MOIST SECTOR...AND ENLARGED
HODOGRAPHS RESULTING FROM BACKED SFC FLOW IN FRONTAL ZONE.
.EDWARDS.. 03/26/2008
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