SWODY1
SPC AC 270525
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2008
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..NERN OK/SERN KS/SRN MO/NWRN AR...
BROAD CYCLONIC WLY FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS INTO
THE DAY2 PERIOD WITH STRONGEST FLOW EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS
FROM THE ORE COAST INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...ENEWD INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND. BROAD WARM SECTOR WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ARE REALIZED ACROSS THE GULF AND CARIBBEAN
WATER BASINS. IT APPEARS SFC DEW POINTS AOA 60F WILL BE MAINTAINED
ACROSS MOST OF TX/OK EAST OF THE DRY LINE WHICH WILL SERVE AS THE
SOURCE REGION FOR DOWNSTREAM ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE
PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXCEPT ALONG A NARROW RIBBON ALONG/NORTH OF
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT WILL STRETCH FROM MO...ENEWD INTO PA.
THIS PORTION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL RECEIVE THE GREATEST LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AS TRANSITORY VEERED LLJ AIDS ONE OR MORE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...MAINLY
EAST OF THE MS RIVER. LATE IN THE PERIOD IT APPEARS SFC FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO SURGE SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS ACROSS NEB/KS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SERN KS/NRN OK
SUGGEST STRONG ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 03Z BEFORE
SPREADING EWD INTO SRN MO/NRN AR WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. PARCELS
LIFTED NEAR 850MB SHOULD YIELD ROUGHLY 1500 J/KG...CERTAINLY
SUFFICIENT FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS GIVEN CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WELL IN
EXCESS OF 50KT. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL IT
APPEARS MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE OR VERY ISOLATED.
.DARROW.. 03/27/2008
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