SWODY2
SPC AC 270530
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2008
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE AND NEARLY ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FCST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH --
NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER INLAND PACIFIC NW -- IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS DAY-1. TROUGH
THEN SHOULD MOVE EWD FROM UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE SWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND TN RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
DAY-2. TRAILING FRONTAL SEGMENT SHOULD DECELERATE...AND PERHAPS
BECOME QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS S TX BY 29/12Z.
MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT/BLOCKING UPPER VORTEX OVER GULF OF AK IS FCST
TO BREAK DOWN DAY-2...WITH STRONGEST PORTION PIVOTING SEWD THEN EWD
ACROSS PACIFIC NW AND BC. BY 29/12Z...ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW SHOULD
BE LOCATED OVER NRN ROCKIES NEAR CANADIAN BORDER. IN RESPONSE...STG
SFC CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NRN WY/SRN MT...WITH WARM
FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS DAKOTAS.
..OZARKS REGION EWD...EARLY PERIOD...
ELEVATED/NOCTURNAL WAA REGIME AND ASSOCIATED HAIL POTENTIAL --
DESCRIBED IN MORE DETAIL IN DAY-1 OUTLOOK -- IS FCST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FIRST FEW HOURS OF DAY-2 PERIOD. DIURNAL WEAKENING OF
LLJ...AND MOVEMENT OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO MORE STABLE AIR
MASS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING OF THIS CONVECTION THROUGH
MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF ERN PORTION OF
FRONT ACROSS S-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO TIDEWATER...BUT ORGANIZED SVR
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAKNESSES IN CONVERGENCE...LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AND BUOYANCY.
..MS DELTA REGION TO S-CENTRAL TX...AFTERNOON/EVENING...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR...PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR AND PULSE
IN CHARACTER...AS CAPPING WEAKENS. STRONGEST TSTMS MAY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL...AND GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS. CONTRIBUTING FACTORS WILL
INCLUDE DIABATIC SFC HEATING...FAVORABLE MOISTURE...AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONTAL ZONE. GREATEST CONDITIONAL SVR POTENTIAL
MAY BE OVER S TX. EXPECT RELATIVELY STEEP DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES
AND LARGEST SBCAPE...RESULTING FROM INSOLATION AT SFC AND ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER AIR ALOFT. STG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH NRN
PORTION OF 70-90 KT SUBTROPICAL JET MAY AID IN STORM
ORGANIZATION...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AND
CAPPING MAY GREATLY LIMIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE.
.EDWARDS.. 03/27/2008
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