SWODY1
SPC AC 290531
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..TX COASTAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...
LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF
STATES WILL BE WEAKLY FORCED ALONG DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MASS
FIELDS BEGIN TO RESPOND TO LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE WRN U.S.
PRIOR TO SFC RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND WEAKENING IT APPEARS
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST ALONG AN AXIS FROM CNTRL
TX TO CNTRL MS FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST WITH H5 FLOW ON THE
ORDER OF 20-35KT BETWEEN SPLIT FLOW REGIME. ADDITIONALLY...LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT PARTICULARLY ROBUST UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT WITH POCKETS OF SFC HEATING THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE OF
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY FOR LOCALIZED MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
..ELSEWHERE...
STRONG SFC HEATING WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE MARGINAL MOISTURE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP FOR SCATTERED HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WIND SHIFT FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO THE BLACK
HILLS DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY CONCENTRATED ZONE OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF WEDGE FRONT THAT WILL BUILD SWWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS INTO GA. LATEST THINKING IS BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTION ACROSS NRN FL INTO CNTRL
GA...ESPECIALLY IF SEA BREEZE INTERACTION CAN ENHANCE CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE. FORECAST INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO MEAGER TO
WARRANT PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD INTO THE PACIFIC NW
NORTH OF STRONG JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST WHERE WLY FLOW SHOULD
FORCE MARITIME AIRMASS INLAND. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
WITHIN POST FRONTAL REGIME ACROSS THIS REGION.
.DARROW/SMITH.. 03/29/2008
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