SWODY2
SPC AC 290558
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...CNTRL
PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY...
..SRN PLAINS/CNTRL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY...
MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE WITH A PROGRESSIVE WRN US UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A BROAD BAND OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE CNTRL STATES. IN RESPONSE...A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AT THE
SFC...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING CONCERNING THE POSITION OF A
STATIONARY FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM NRN OK ENEWD ACROSS SE
KS INTO NRN MO BY LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CAP IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY EARLY EVENING
AND SEVERAL AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE PLAINS OR MID MS VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE NRN PART
OF THE SRN PLAINS. MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A LARGE AREA
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE WEST. THIS COMBINED WITH A STEADILY INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE EVENING AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR
PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. A FEW STRONG
AND/OR LONG-LIVED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR WITH PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS
THAT MOVE PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. THE CORRIDOR FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO SET UP FROM WRN AND CNTRL OK
NEWD INTO SE KS WITH THE THREAT INCREASING DURING THE EVENING AND
PERSISTENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
FURTHER NEWD ACROSS WRN AND NRN MO...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LESS DUE TO A LOCATION FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE WRN US UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING...STRONG LIFT ALONG THE JET
AXIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS. MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS EVIDENT ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SEVERE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
.BROYLES.. 03/29/2008
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