DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 291727
SWODY2
SPC AC 291725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN OK AND VICINITY NEWD
INTO NRN MO AND ADJACENT AREAS...

..SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE/AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED DAY 2...AS LARGE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. DIGS/MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/TOWARD THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...SLY FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS AND
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION...S OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES/SRN KS EWD ACROSS MO INTO IL.
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...A LEE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT ENEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN OK AND
INTO ERN KS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..PARTS OF OK/ERN KS/MO AND VICINITY...
A WARMING/MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD...AS PERSISTENT SLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE S
CENTRAL CONUS AHEAD OF WRN UPPER TROUGH. WHILE STEEP LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THIS REGION FROM THE W/SW...ASSOCIATED CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY WARM SECTOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES OR ADJACENT WRN
OK...WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /1500 TO 2000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER
CAPE/. MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE EVENING
NEAR AND N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. THIS
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ONSET OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.

WITH MODERATE /NEAR 40 KT/ WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO PERSIST
FROM AFTERNOON ONWARD...INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS IS FORECAST AS SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON -- AND PARTICULARLY AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY EXPECTED...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY -- PARTICULARLY
WITHIN A ZONE FROM SWRN OK NEWD ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SERN KS.
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AS WILL A FEW
TORNADOES -- PARTICULARLY DURING THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS INCREASING THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND A NEWD SHIFT OF THE STRONGER
WARM ADVECTION INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION. WITH A TENDENCY
FOR MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH NEWD EXTENT...PRIMARY THREAT
ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD BE HAIL.

.GOSS.. 03/29/2008

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