SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291709
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-291915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0495
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL GA INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 291709Z - 291915Z
STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH 21-22Z. SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS GENERALLY LOW...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD INTRUSION TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL
SOUTHWESTWARD ADVANCEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AND...FORCING IN
CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM
NEAR/SOUTH OF ATLANTA INTO AREAS SOUTH/WEST OF CHARLESTON SC.
DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THIS
REGION...WHERE RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE APPEARS A
BIT MARGINAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
RELATIVELY WEAKNESS OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AND...WEAK DEEP LAYER
FLOW/SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT. BUT...20-30
KT EAST SOUTHEASTERLY STORM MOTIONS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH SIZABLE SUB-CLOUD
BASE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINTS SPREADS...COULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS.
.KERR.. 03/29/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...FFC...BMX...
32948558 33458526 33888493 34128423 33848324 33738192
33428103 33108020 32408042 32118122 32258226 32328391
32358405
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