SWODY2
SPC AC 120526
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2008
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN OK...NERN
TX...WRN/CNTRL AR...
..OK/TX/AR/LA...
STRENGTHENING BELT OF WLYS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN U.S. OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THIS REGARD. PROBLEMS DO ARISE HOWEVER IN THAT
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT BEYOND THE DAY1-2 PERIOD AND TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL
PROVE NECESSARY FOR CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF SEVERE OUTLOOK.
HAVING SAID THAT...IT APPEARS ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
OK/TX EARLY IN THE DAY2 PERIOD BEFORE EJECTING ENEWD INTO THE TN
VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. DEEP WLY FLOW OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN ROCKIES WILL UNDOUBTEDLY SPREAD A PLUME OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES EWD...DISPLACED MORE THAN OTHERWISE WOULD BE
NOTED...INTO THE TN VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE.
ADDITIONALLY...LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND VEER SWLY AS IT SHIFTS INTO
THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. ONE NEGATIVE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE BUT RATHER SURGE NWD ACROSS ERN
TX INTO SERN OK IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. IT APPEARS SFC WIND
SHIFT WILL SAG SEWD TO A POSITION FROM NRN AR...SWWD INTO SCNTRL
OK...THEN STALL BEFORE RETREATING DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE
ASCENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND SUBSTANTIAL INHIBITION WILL CAP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEST
OF I35...HOWEVER SCT THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP PRIMARILY AFTER 00Z
ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ALONG FRONTAL ZONE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE GREATEST RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
..ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST FROM
WRN CO...NWWD TO THE WA/ORE/NRN CA COAST AS STRONG JET SAGS SOUTH OF
THE GREAT BASIN. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTING
FACTOR IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AND STRONGLY DIURNAL DUE TO MARGINAL MOISTURE SUPPLY.
.DARROW.. 03/12/2008
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