SWODY3
SPC AC 120728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2008
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK...EWD ACROSS AR
INTO TN...SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF STATES...
..ERN SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF STATES...
STRENGTHENING WLY MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE
CONUS WILL GREATLY ENHANCE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER PARTS OF THE
SRN U.S. AS MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS RETURNS NWD BENEATH VERY STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR. LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF SFC CYCLOGENESIS FRIDAY ALONG THE RED RIVER OF
SWRN OK WITH A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO EXTEND EWD
ALONG/NORTH SIDE OF THE RED RIVER INTO THE NRN GULF STATES. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY ZONE OF EXPECTED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PERIOD AS VERY STRONG SPEED MAX
RACES EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO AR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE THE NAM HAS BEEN EXCLUDED DUE TO OVER
DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW INTO SWRN MO WITH A DECIDEDLY NWD BIAS FROM
THE OTHER GUIDANCE.
LATEST THINKING IS DAY2 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRAW MOISTURE NWD
ACROSS ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY PRIOR TO DAY3 UPPER SPEED MAX.
MOISTURE SHOULD THEN WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY WWD NORTH OF WARM FRONT
INTO ERN OK. DEEP WLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MUCH STRONGER
EML THAN OTHERWISE WOULD BE OBSERVED AND THUS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
SHOULD IMPEDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF TX SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS OK BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN SPREAD EWD INTO AN AIRMASS THAT WILL BE
STRONGLY SHEARED AND MUCH MORE UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AR INTO
NRN MS/WRN TN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THIS
REGION WITH STRONG SIGNALS FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND LIKELY
TORNADOES.
ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST AXIS OF SEVERE SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED STATES...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN SPEED MAX FARTHER SE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE
STRONGLY FORCED...BUT SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG ERN EDGE OF CAP WITHIN
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE MORE THAN ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR
SUSTAINING ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL EXIST. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING WHERE SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE WELL
INTO THE UPPER 60S. ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.
.DARROW.. 03/12/2008
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