SWODY2
SPC AC 230442
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2008
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
ERN CONUS SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ONE MORE DAY THIS
PERIOD...AS SEVERAL RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS NOW OVER
UPPER MIDWEST CONSOLIDATE INTO STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LATTER TROUGH
SHOULD AMPLIFY OVER SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY IN PERIOD...THEN SHOULD
MOVE OFFSHORE CAROLINAS ROUGHLY 25/00Z.
IN LOW LEVELS...POST-FRONTAL...CONTINENTAL BASED...ANTICYCLONIC
TRAJECTORIES ACROSS NRN GULF AND ADJACENT STATES WILL KEEP
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE SHUNTED AWAY FROM CONUS...AND MINIMIZE
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED/DEEP CONVECTION.
..S-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT...
DESPITE MEAGER MOISTURE...DIURNAL/DIABATIC HEATING BENEATH SRN
APPALACHIANS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY STEEPEN LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHALLOW/SFC-BASED CONVECTION. MOST NAM-KF
AND SPECTRAL FCST PROFILES SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN BELOW
FAVORABLE ICING LAYERS FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...A FEW
SPECTRAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SPOTTY INSTANCES OF SOMEWHAT DEEPER BUT
STILL SMALL CAPE OVER THIS REGION -- GENERALLY AOB 200 J/KG.
OVERALL POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL/WEAK FOR CATEGORICAL TSTM
AREA ATTM.
.EDWARDS.. 03/23/2008
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