SWODY1
SPC AC 160533
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT WED APR 16 2008
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN AND CNTRL
KS AND A SMALL PART OF NWRN OK...
..SYNOPSIS...
MIDLEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SWWD INTO THE
LOWER CO VALLEY WILL ELONGATE AND EVENTUALLY FRACTURE AS MORE
PROGRESSIVE NRN BRANCH OF TROUGH MOVES EWD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY AND
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...SRN PORTION OF TROUGH WILL
AMPLIFY AS UPSTREAM JET STREAK /CURRENTLY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA/
ROUNDS THE TROUGH BASE...SUPPORTING A CONCENTRATED AREA OF HEIGHT
FALLS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EWD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO EVOLVING NRN BRANCH
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM NRN MN NEWD INTO CNTRL ONTARIO WHILE
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SWRN
EXTENSION OF FRONT WILL SLOW IT/S SWD PROGRESS OVER THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER NERN NM INTO THE OK/TX
PNHDLS. MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN THROUGH THE DAY FROM
INTERSECTION WITH THE FRONT OVER NWRN OK OR THE ERN OK/TX PNHDLS SWD
INTO W-CNTRL TX.
..OK/KS...
16/00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM S TX AND CURRENT SURFACE/BUOY DATA
INDICATE A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR MASS RETURNING NWD THROUGH THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND TX WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE
LOWER/MID 50S. CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT
THE NWD ADVECTION OF SIMILAR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH OK INTO
SRN KS BENEATH A WELL-DEFINED EML AND RESULTANT STRONG CAP. THIS
CAP WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS ANY SURFACE-BASED...DIURNAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE AND SURFACE FRONT.
TSTMS /LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED/ ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN
17/00Z-17/03Z NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF DRYLINE AND SURFACE FRONT
OVER NWRN OK OR SWRN KS. HERE...CAP SHOULD BE LOCALLY OVERCOME AS
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LLJ ENHANCES CONVERGENCE ALONG AND JUST N OF
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1300 J
PER KG/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH RELATIVELY STRONG CLOUD BEARING SHEAR
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF
MAINLY LARGE HAIL.
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE...ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR ACROSS KS OVERNIGHT WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING/DEVELOPING
NEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MO VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME HAIL WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
.MEAD.. 04/16/2008
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