SWODY2
SPC AC 160554
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT WED APR 16 2008
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN OK SWWD INTO THE TX HILL
COUNTRY...
..SYNOPSIS...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND
INTO CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD...WITH RIDGING ON BOTH THE
UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM SIDES OF THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE...AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SRN PLAINS...AND WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
..ERN OK SSWWD INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY...
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER FEATURE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM. BY MID AFTERNOON...THE GFS DEPICTS THE
SURFACE FRONT FROM S CENTRAL KS SSWWD ACROSS WRN OK...WHILE THE NAM
FRONT STRETCHES FROM EXTREME SERN KS SSWWD ACROSS ERN OK.
THESE DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL LOCATION CONTINUE TO CAST DOUBT ON THE
MOST LIKELY ZONE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT AND ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT AT LEAST MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING/MOISTENING OCCURS BENEATH RELATIVELY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
WHILE A CAPPING INVERSION AT THE BASE OF THE EML WILL LIKELY HINDER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
INVOF FRONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS COMBINATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL UVV INVOF FRONT LIFTS/WEAKENS THE CAP.
INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED -- PARTICULARLY IN THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE...BUT MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW INCREASING TO 50 TO 60
KT ALONG SERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT SHEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- AND THUS ANY
TORNADO POTENTIAL -- REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AGAIN DUE TO APPRECIABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE PATTERN.
HOWEVER...GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR AT LEAST A HAIL/LOCALLY-DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT RISK/15% SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS
THIS REGION. THOUGH SOME THREAT MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
-- PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TX...A GENERAL DECREASE IN
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL
STABILIZATION.
.GOSS/COOK.. 04/16/2008
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