DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291255
SWODY1
SPC AC 291253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2008

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NATION
THIS PERIOD. DEEP CLOSED LOW NOW N OF VANCOUVER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SLOWLY ESE...REACHING SE BC BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE LOW...UPR RIDGE NOW CRESTING THE RCKYS WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLNS AS TROUGH FURTHER STRENGTHENS OVER ERN ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC.

AT THE SFC...EXPECT LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER CNTRL MT LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPR SYSTEM. THE LOW LIKELY WILL
EVOLVE ALONG LEE TROUGH WELL E OF DEEP FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPR TROUGH. THE FRONT SHOULD CATCH UP TO THE LOW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW REDEVELOPS SE TOWARD NE WY/WRN
SD.

...MT...
FAIRLY STRONG SFC HEATING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND MOST
OF CNTRL MT TODAY...AHEAD OF MAIN FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING UPR LOW. GIVEN COOL EXISTING MID LVL TEMPERATURES...
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A FAIRLY DEEP MIXED LAYER...
POSSIBLY EXTENDING TO 600 MB BY MID AFTN. COUPLED WITH INCREASING
FORCING FOR ASCENT/STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WITH UPR TROUGH...SETUP
COULD LEAD TO SCTD CLUSTERS/SHORT BANDS OF HIGH-BASED STORMS...
ESPECIALLY INVOF LEE LOW IN N CNTRL MT. FARTHER W...MORE
CONCENTRATED...POST-FRONTAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN WRN MT/ERN
ID...WHERE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME SOMEWHAT ANA-FRONTAL IN NATURE.

COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS WITH STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD LOCALLY DMGG WINDS WITH
THE STORMS IN CNTRL MT. ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS ALSO MAY OCCUR WITH
THE FRONTAL STORMS BEFORE COLD AIR BECOMES EXCESSIVELY DEEP.

...S FL...
GIVEN MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW OVER REGION...A STRONG STORM
OR TWO COULD FORM OVER EXTREME S FL AND THE FL STRAITS BEFORE
SHALLOW COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ERN TROUGH FINALLY EDGES S OF THE
PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 04/29/2008

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