SWOD48
SPC AC 290844
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2008
VALID 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW -- NOW OFFSHORE PACIFIC NW AND BC -- IS
FCST TO MOVE ACROSS NWRN CONUS AND SWRN CANADA THROUGH DAY-3.
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH BASE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
PRIMARY/OCCLUDING CYCLONE BY DAY-4/2ND-3RD FROM E-CENTRAL PLAINS
ACROSS MID/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. SOME SVR POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP
INVOF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL ZONE FROM IL/INDIANA AREA SWWD ACROSS
SE TX DAY-4...SHIFTING EWD TOWARD SRN APPALACHIANS/SERN CONUS
DAY-5/3RD-4TH. HOWEVER...WITH LIKELIHOOD OF PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT TO
FRONT...AND RELATED QUESTIONS ABOUT STORM MODE AND
DESTABILIZATION...SVR PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TOO CONDITIONAL AND
UNCERTAIN IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK FOR THOSE
PERIODS. ANOTHER STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW MAY
DIGG SEWD FROM NERN PACIFIC ACROSS SWRN CONUS DAYS 7-8/5TH-7TH...BUT
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE REGARDING TRACK/INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS SFC RESPONSE.
..EDWARDS.. 04/29/2008
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