SWODY1
SPC AC 161618
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT WED APR 16 2008
VALID 161630Z - 171200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FOR SW AND CENTRAL
KS...
..KS AREA TONIGHT...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD OVER NV/SW UT/NW AZ. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT NOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS KS /IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD WAVE/ WILL
STALL LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS
INVOF NE NM. THIS LEE CYCLONE WILL THEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP EWD ALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TOWARD NW OK BY 17/12Z.
A MODIFYING CP AIR MASS IS RETURNING NWD FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO
TO TX/OK THIS MORNING...BENEATH A VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
SHORT TERM MODEL FORECASTS APPEAR TO BE OVERESTIMATING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS BY 2-4 F BY THIS EVENING ACROSS OK/SRN KS...WHERE
VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 52-56 F. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL STILL
BE SUBSTANTIAL IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNLIKELY. THE MORE PROBABLE
SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR OR AFTER
ROUGHLY 03Z ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN KS...ON THE NOSE OF A
STRENGTHENING LLJ WHERE WAA IS MAXIMIZED. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT WILL PROMOTE A
THREAT FOR SOME SUPERCELL OR BOW ECHO STRUCTURES WITH AN ATTENDANT
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS.
.THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 04/16/2008
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