SWODY2
SPC AC 161715
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT WED APR 16 2008
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OK AND TX...
..TX/OK...
STRONGER MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS SRN NM INTO WEST TX/OK THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO KS/OK WHICH WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
SURGING COLD FRONT AS MOVES INTO INCREASINGLY MOIST BUT ONLY
MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE PRESENCE OF A VERY STRONG EML THAT HAS
OVERSPREAD THE SRN PLAINS. THIS ELEVATED PLUME OF VERY WARM AIR
WILL NEED CONSIDERABLE COOLING BEFORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. LATEST THINKING IS LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL ERODE THE CAP QUICKER ACROSS OK AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG WIND SHIFT BY LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SIGNIFICANT ANNA FRONT-TYPE COMPONENT TO CONVECTION
WITH POST-WIND SHIFT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BEFORE MUCH
DRIER/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS OVERSPREADS REGION. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES
ARE MORE THAN STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER THE MOST DOMINANT STORM MODE SHOULD BE LINEAR IN
NATURE DUE TO THE NECESSARY FORCING TO BREAK THE CAP. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT INTO TX DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE MS VALLEY LATE.
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL ARE THE GREATEST THREATS.
.DARROW.. 04/16/2008
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