SWODY3
SPC AC 160656
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 AM CDT WED APR 16 2008
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD WITH TIME...AHEAD OF A SECOND
TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG/EXPAND ACROSS THE WRN CONUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS DIFFER WITH THE POSITION OF THE CLOSED LOW...WITH
THE ECMWF MUCH FURTHER S WITH THIS FEATURE. IN EITHER CASE...EXPECT
A WEAKENING FRONT TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF TX THROUGH
THE DAY...AND EWD INTO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD INVOF SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT...WHILE THE PRE-CONVECTIVE
AIRMASS SHOULD UNDERGO WEAK DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY AS
LIMITED HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES.
THUS...EXPECT LINE OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING EWD...WITH
SOME INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED AS THE STORMS REACH THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION/LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALONG WITH SOME DESTABILIZATION...MODEST SHEAR /MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW
40 TO 50 KT/ WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
VIGOROUS/ORGANIZED STORMS. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE A LOW
PROBABILITY/5% THREAT AREA COVERING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
.GOSS/COOK.. 04/16/2008
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