SWOD48
SPC AC 160748
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 AM CDT WED APR 16 2008
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
..DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES -- ALREADY APPARENT PRIOR TO
THE START OF THE PERIOD AS A CLOSED LOW CROSSES THE ERN CONUS --
PERSIST INTO THE DAY 4-8 TIME FRAME AS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WRN
U.S. EXPANDS/BEGINS MOVING EWD.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER FAIRLY SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE HANDLING OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF EJECTING THE TROUGH NEWD INTO CENTRAL
NOAM IN AT LEAST TWO DISTINCT PIECES...WHILE THE GFS DEPICTS A MORE
CONSOLIDATED ENEWD PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE WITH TIME.
FROM A LARGE-SCALE PATTERN PERSPECTIVE...SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS SOMEWHERE IN THE
DAY 5-8 TIME FRAME...AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNING NWD BENEATH
MODERATE/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN ONE OR MORE
SEVERE EPISODES. HOWEVER...NARROWING DOWN THE POTENTIAL THREAT
SPATIALLY OR TEMPORALLY CANNOT BE DONE WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE
AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. THUS...WILL
NOT HIGHLIGHT ANY THREAT AREAS THIS FORECAST.
.GOSS/COOK.. 04/16/2008
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