SWODY1
SPC AC 171626
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008
VALID 171630Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SEWD
TOWARDS LAKE HURON/ERN ONTARIO BY EARLY SUN. A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR AN
ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
...ERN GREAT LAKES...
LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH /NOW CROSSING SERN ONTARIO PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/ AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM SRN ONTARIO THROUGH NWRN OH
WILL AID IN AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM PRODUCTION TODAY. ANTECEDENT
CLOUD COVERAGE/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW SURFACE HEATING...AND
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 40S...ONLY POCKETS OF WEAK
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG
LOW/MID-LEVEL WLYS SHOULD FAVOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL.
...WRN GREAT LAKES...
AN INTENSE MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET DIVING SWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF
LARGER-SCALE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED/SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
MAINLY ACROSS WI INTO MI/NRN IL. DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS
GENERALLY ONLY IN THE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S...SURFACE HEATING AND 500 MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO AOB -26C WILL RESULT IN VERY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG. THIS WILL SUPPORT
STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
..GRAMS.. 05/17/2008
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