SWODY1
SPC AC 171226
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008
VALID 171300Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...GREAT LAKES INTO PA/NY...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER ONTARIO TODAY WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE COLD FRONTS/TROUGHS ROTATING
SWD OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND THEN EWD INTO THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL
SETUP UP WILL FAVOR POCKETS OF WEAK TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS RISE THROUGH THE MID 60S UNDER VERY COLD AIR ALOFT.
ALTHOUGH...OVERALL LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT
INSTABILITY WILL INHIBIT SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REGION.
SECONDARY ENERGY ALOFT IS FORECAST TO DIG SSEWD ACROSS THE NRN MS
RIVER VALLEY/WI WHICH SHOULD FOCUS A CLUSTER OF LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. H5 TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO AOB -26C OVER
THE WRN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AS STRONG MID LEVEL JET SETTLES SWD
ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC. THUS...DESPITE DRY LOW
LEVELS IN PLACE...SBCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT HAIL AND STRONGER GUSTS...SOME OF EACH COULD APPROACH OR
BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS...INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER...BROADER AREA OF LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO FAR ERN OH/WRN PA INTO NY. VERY STRONG WLY LOW TO
MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD FAVOR ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN
DIURNAL STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 05/17/2008
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