SWODY2
SPC AC 040556
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT SUN MAY 04 2008
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN KS
SWD INTO NWRN OK AND THE CNTRL/ERN TX PNHDLS...
...CNTRL/WRN KS SWD INTO W TX...
MULTI-STREAM UPR FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY FEATURING A
STRONG HUDSON BAY VORTEX AND A CUT-OFF LOW APPROACHING BAJA NORTE.
STRONGEST BELT OF WLYS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY
ALONG THE SRN RIM OF THE CANADIAN FEATURE. A SUBTROPICAL BRANCH
WILL ARC FROM NWRN MEXICO ACROSS TX AND INTO THE NRN GULF BASIN
WHILE A WEAKER BRANCH EXISTS FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE
MID-SOUTH/SERN STATES. WITHIN THE LATTER STREAM...WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE SEWD...WITH ONE SUCH WAVE APPROACHING
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AFTN.
IN THE LWR LEVELS...PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE TIED TO THE CANADIAN
FEATURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THIS
PERIOD...WITH A LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE
CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NWD FROM S TX/NERN MEXICO
INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TODAY AND MONDAY BENEATH A STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATE PLUME. BY MID-AFTN...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID-50S WILL
BE COMMON AS FAR N AS CNTRL KS WITH LWR-MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF CNTRL
TX. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS/PCPN WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN COOL LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES OVER CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF TX/OK THROUGH THE DAY.
BUT...AREAS FROM THE TX S PLAINS/ERN NM NEWD INTO SWRN KS SHOULD
EXPERIENCE STRONGER HEATING ALONG/E OF THE DRYLINE...CONTRIBUTING TO
MLCAPES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG.
HIGH-BASED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER ERN NM/SERN CO ALONG THE
DRYLINE/WEAK SFC LOW AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPR TROUGH SKIRTS
THE REGION. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW STRONGER AS THEY MOVE OFF
THE DRYLINE AND INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVER THE ERN TX PNHDL/SWRN
KS DURING THE EARLY EVENING. 0-6KM VERTICAL SHEAR OF 50 KTS AND
MAGNITUDE OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY RISKS WITH SUPERCELLS STORMS. LLJ VEERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGEST MOISTURE/THERMAL ADVECTION ACROSS CNTRL/SRN
KS AND NWRN OK WHERE UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO TSTM CLUSTERS IS
POSSIBLE.
FARTHER S...TSTM INITIATION IS MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS THE TX S PLAINS
INTO THE TRANSPECOS OWING TO ABSENCE OF LARGER SCALE SUPPORT.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLD STORM INITIATION WILL
EXIST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD A STORM
DEVELOP...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..RACY.. 05/04/2008
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