SWODY3
SPC AC 040726
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT SUN MAY 04 2008
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPR MS
VLY SWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...
...CNTRL PLAINS NEWD INTO UPR MS VLY...
CHALLENGING/LOW CONFIDENCE FCST EXISTS FOR TUESDAY. MAIN SVR
IMPETUS SHOULD REVOLVE AROUND A MID-LEVEL WAVE THAT MOST MODELS
SUGGEST WILL ROTATE AROUND THE CANADIAN VORTEX INTO THE UPR MS
VLY/CORN BELT BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL REINFORCE A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SETTLE SEWD INTO WI...MN...IA AND NEB BY TUESDAY EVENING.
ELEVATED CLUSTERS OF TSTMS GENERATED BY STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
ALONG AN EXPANDING CAP WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS IA
INTO WI. IN WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HEAT
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT COINCIDENT WITH AT LEAST
LWR 60S DEW POINTS. RESULTANT INSTABILITY AND THE APPROACH OF
LARGER SCALE ASCENT DURING PEAK HEATING WILL PROBABLY IGNITE TSTMS
IN ERN SD/SWRN MN/NERN NEB DURING THE MID-AFTN. PROXIMITY OF 50-55
KTS OF WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BOOST
6KM BULK SHEAR INTO THE SUPERCELLULAR RANGE WITH LARGE HAIL PROBABLY
THE PRIMARY THREAT.
ACTIVITY WOULD MOST LIKELY MOVE ESEWD INTO THE UPR MS VLY...WHILE
BACKBUILDING LATER TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS IA...SRN NEB...NRN KS AND
PERHAPS NWRN MO ALONG THE STRONGER CAP. THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE DMGG WINDS/HAIL WELL INTO THE NIGHT.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
CUT-OFF UPR LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN AND EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE SWRN
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT. DOWNSTREAM...UPR RIDGE SHOULD STRENGTHEN
DURING THE DAY...LIKELY MITIGATING TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A COMPLETELY TSTM-FREE AFTN/EVE IS
LOW. IN ADDITION...MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCE AMONG THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON POTENTIAL LATE NIGHT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE DRYLINE OVER W TX. FOR NOW...THIS FCST WILL HAVE LOW SVR
PROBABILITIES FOR BOTH AFTN/EVE AND LATE NIGHT TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
..RACY.. 05/04/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment