SWODY3
SPC AC 180717
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2008
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WRN UPPER TROUGH -- AND THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE -- ARE FORECAST TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD THIS PERIOD...BUT WITH THE ERN U.S. TROUGH
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER ERN NOAM...THE RESULT WILL BE AN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY THE GREAT BASIN...WHILE A WEAKER LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE SERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST...
WEAK SURFACE LOW INITIALLY EXPECTED INVOF ERN KY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
QUICKLY EWD/OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE THE TRAILING W-E COLD
FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/NRN GA AND NRN PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
EXPECTED TO RESIDE S OF THIS FRONT...DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD
SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ABOVE THE SURFACE FRONT...INCREASING/ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
WITH HEIGHT /WSWLY H5 FLOW LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 50 KT/ IS EXPECTED.
THUS...APPARENT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS
WARRANTS THE INTRODUCTION OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 05/18/2008
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