DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 180838
SWOD48
SPC AC 180837

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2008

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED MODELS -- THOUGH THEY CONTINUE TO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO THE UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD -- PERSIST IN SUGGESTING A GENERAL INCREASE IN SEVERE
POTENTIAL OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. BOTH DEVELOP A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. AND
SUBSTANTIAL NWD RETURN OF RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS
STARTING DAY 4. WHILE SOMEWHAT MERIDIONAL...FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION -- AND THEREFORE EXPECT BOTH THE
KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
STORMS.

DIFFICULTY PERSISTS...HOWEVER...IN NARROWING DOWN THE REGION OF
GREATER THREAT -- BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY -- DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ATTM...GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST DAYS 5-7
/I.E. THU. MAY 22 THROUGH SAT. MAY 24/ ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NRN PLAINS. THE GFS -- WHICH DEPICTS THE UPPER RIDGE FARTHER E
THAN THE ECMWF -- WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR CENTRAL KS/CENTRAL NEB ALONG
ERN FRINGES OF A FAIRLY WELL-DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF WOULD FAVOR A PRIMARY THREAT AREA FURTHER WWD -- ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS -- WITHIN SELY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME E OF
A SHARPER LEE TROUGH/LOW. ATTM...WILL INTRODUCE A THREAT AREA FOR
DAYS 5-7 ACROSS MUCH OF KS/NEB AND INTO PARTS OF ERN CO/ERN WY --
COVERING PORTIONS OF THE ENVELOPE ENCLOSING SOLUTIONS FROM BOTH
MODELS.

..GOSS.. 05/18/2008

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