SWODY3
SPC AC 010728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MO EWD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME IN PLACE OVER THE NRN HALF OF
THE NATION WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHT
FALLS ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF STRONG...DIGGING UPPER JET STREAK SUPPORT
TROUGH FORMATION OVER THE WRN STATES. IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRIMARY
BOUNDARY OF INTEREST WILL BE WARM OR STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO
NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY...EXTENDING WWD ACROSS KS OR OK TO STRENGTHENING
LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.
...MID MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE
PERTURBATIONS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN FAST...ZONAL FLOW REGIME FROM THE
DAKOTAS TO NERN STATES. A WSWLY LLJ WILL ACCORDINGLY DEVELOP EWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...ENHANCING MOISTURE FLUX ALONG AND S OF
SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR BENEATH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PLUME ALSO SPREADING EWD WITH AIR MASS BECOMING
MODERATELY UNSTABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MULTIPLE...EMBEDDED IMPULSES AND LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IN GENERAL
SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD OF EPISODIC SEVERE STORM OCCURRENCES ALONG
LENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE AIR MASS CAN SUFFICIENTLY
DESTABILIZE. THE PRESENCE OF 40-55 KT WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW AND A 30-40
KT WSWLY LLJ WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF FORWARD-PROPAGATING MESOSCALE
SYSTEMS /BOW ECHOES/ AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND MAYBE A FEW TORNADOES.
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN WWD ALONG BOUNDARY
TRAILING SURFACE LOW FROM CNTRL/SRN MO INTO KS/OK. BOTH VERTICAL
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN STORM
INITIATION.
...HIGH PLAINS...
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ALONG AND TO THE N OF STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
VEER WITH TIME...ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED...DIURNAL STORMS APPEAR MORE LIKELY THAN POINTS
FARTHER E ALONG STATIONARY FRONT. BUT...THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION REMAINS IN QUESTION AND ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES HAVE
BEEN INCLUDED ATTM.
..MEAD.. 06/01/2008
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