SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010734
KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-010930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1132
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN KS...N-CENTRAL/NERN
OK...SRN MO...EXTREME NRN AR.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 409...
VALID 010734Z - 010930Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 409
CONTINUES.
BAND OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS FROM SERN KS EWD ACROSS MO OZARKS
STILL POSES RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH LATEST TRENDS FROM
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY INDICATE BACKBUILDING IS NOT HAPPENING OVER
S-CENTRAL KS AND N-CENTRAL OK...POTENTIAL REMAINS ALONG AND N OF
QUASISTATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY THAT PERSISTS NEAR END-ROG LINE.
ACTIVITY OVER SERN KS HAS SHOWN WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES TOWARD
EXTREME NERN OK...AND AS IT APCHS SRN EDGE OF WW. SIMILAR
TENDENCIES MAY OCCUR WITH SWRN MO ACTIVITY MOVING INTO NWRN AR.
MODIFIED OBSERVED/RUC SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS
AROUND MEM...INDICATE RELATIVELY WARM/STABLE LAYER NEAR 700 MB
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROM NERN OK ACROSS NRN AR INTO WRN TN.
ASSOCIATED CINH MAY SUPPRESS NEW DEVELOPMENT...OR RE-INTENSIFICATION
OF WEAKENING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THESE AREA. HOWEVER...MLCAPES
NEAR 2000 J/KG MAY REMAIN AHEAD OF CONVECTION FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.
EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS STILL APPEAR TO BE ROOTED NEAR
SFC...ASSOCIATED LARGELY WITH HIGH THETAE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS
STILL IN PLACE AND FCST TO REMAIN OVER PRECONVECTIVE AREAS. FORCED
ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGES OF COLD POOLS MAY BREAK CAPPING AND
CONTRIBUTE TO MAINTENANCE OF EXISTING STG-SVR CONVECTIVE
PROCESSES...PARTICULARLY OVER NERN AR AND MO BOOT-HEEL REGION. SVR
POTENTIAL WITH SUCH TSTMS APPEARS MRGL ATTM...AND ADDITIONAL WW MAY
NOT BE REQUIRED FOR THOSE AREAS.
..EDWARDS.. 06/01/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...
38109325 37749045 36978931 36408949 35999039 36009233
36389764 37669795
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