SWODY1
SPC AC 020050
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT TUE JUL 01 2008
VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
CNTRL/ERN MT INTO NRN WY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS...
...NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING FROM THE ID PNHDL EWD
ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF MT INTO WY WITH THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS EVOLVING INTO A LINE OVER S-CNTRL MT. THIS ACTIVITY IS
LARGELY BEING DRIVEN BY LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH ID INTO WRN MT. CURRENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE
DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER SERN MT/NERN WY REMAINS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG...WHICH MAY SUPPORT AN EWD
CONTINUATION OF EVOLVING CONVECTIVE LINE THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS.
FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 1657.
...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN ONTARIO SWWD
THROUGH NRN MN AND INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. TSTMS HAVE SLOWLY BEEN
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG OR IN IMMEDIATE WAKE OF
FRONT FROM NWRN MN INTO NERN ND. 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH MLCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE
REMAINED IN THE MID 50S...TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG WITHIN THE AXIS OF
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRENGTHENING WITH TIME WITH THE APPROACH OF UPPER
TROUGH. AS SUCH...ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOWS AND SUPERCELLS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 1658.
...AZ...
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WHICH EARLIER DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
HAVE MOVED/DEVELOPED SWD/SWWD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING GIVEN THE INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES AND RESULTANT EVAPORATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL IN THE
SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
..MEAD.. 07/02/2008
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