SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020053
MNZ000-NDZ000-020300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1658
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT TUE JUL 01 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN ND...NRN MN.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 649...
VALID 020053Z - 020300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 649
CONTINUES.
A FEW STG-SVR TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NRN MN...INCLUDING
APPARENT SUPERCELL THAT CROSSED PORTIONS SRN ROSEAU/NERN
MARSHALL/NWRN BELTRAMI COUNTY WITHIN PAST HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
CONTINUE TO POSE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUST THREATS AS IT PROCEEDS
SEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL MN TOWARD AREA BETWEEN HIB-PKD. OTHER
DEVELOPMENT FARTHER W HAS BEEN STRUGGLING WITH LACK OF LOW LEVEL
LIFT RELATIVE TO APPARENT CINH...AS WELL AS COLD FRONT UNDERCUTTING
THOSE TOWERS THAT DO FORM.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM SRN LAKE OF THE WOODS SWWD
ACROSS GFK COUNTY ND TO VICINITY DIK. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
SSEWD APPROXIMATELY 20 KT ACROSS WW AREA. EVEN THOUGH AIR MASS IS
MORE MOIST BEHIND FRONT...LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INDICATES
FRONT WILL DEMARCATE NRN BOUND OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MLCAPES ACROSS ERN ND AND NWRN MN VARYING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG
ACCORDING TO SFC DEW POINT VALUES...WHICH RANGE FROM LOW 60S TO NEAR
70 F. FARTHER NE TOWARD BOUNDARY WATERS REGION...BUOYANCY
DIMINISHES WITH COMBINATION OF LOWER SFC DEW POINTS AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER LAPSE RATES JUST ABOVE 850 MB...BASED ON INL RAOB.
PRECONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN STEEP FOR
ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS BEFORE STRONGEST DIABATIC COOLING BEGINS...AND
WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH TSTMS AS WELL.
THEREAFTER...PROGRESSIVE STABILIZATION OF NEAR-SFC LAYER WILL REDUCE
SVR GUST RISK...THOUGH HAIL THREAT WILL PERSIST WITH ANY SUSTAINED
CONVECTION THAT REMAINS.
..EDWARDS.. 07/02/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
47959767 48239631 48799471 48589388 48449378 48639315
47089269 46669411 47169681 47259746 47429773 47639794
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