SWODY1
SPC AC 241955
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008
VALID 242000Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AL AND
VICINITY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...
...AL AND VICINITY...
CENTER OF T.D. FAY IS INDICATED OVER SRN MS ATTM...WITH STRONGEST
CONVECTION WELL E OF THE CENTER ACROSS NRN AND ERN AL/GA/THE FL
PANHANDLE. GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AL...WHERE MOST FAVORABLE
JUXTAPOSITION OF INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS. FOR
ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO SWOMCD #2149.
...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON......BUT MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
FURTHER E INTO THE PLAINS REMAINS CAPPED. PRESENCE OF THIS
CAP...ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT...AND OVERALL
LARGE-SCALE RIDGING SUGGESTS THAT STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED
-- AND THAT STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO MOVE APPRECIABLY OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING...THE SELY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A
BIT...PERHAPS ALLOWING SOME SEWD PROPAGATION OF STORMS. COMBINATION
OF ROUGHLY 20 KT NWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS FROM NRN CO NWD ATOP
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SELYS WOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A
FEW STRONGER/ORGANIZED STORMS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL THAT WIND/HAIL
THREAT COULD INCREASE/SPREAD SEWD BY THIS EVENING.
...LOWER GREAT LAKES/MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY REGION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON...WITHIN A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM
SRN ONTARIO SWWD ACROSS LK ERIE INTO THE LOWER OH/MID MS VALLEY
REGION. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED FROM ROUGHLY SRN IN
SWWD...BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAKER FROM SWRN OH NEWD WHERE SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT IS OBSERVED. WHILE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WILL MAINTAIN 5%
PROBABILITY FOR LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN/NEAR THE STRONGEST
CELLS.
..GOSS.. 08/24/2008
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