SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241955
GAZ000-ALZ000-242130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2149
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS AL AND EXTREME WRN GA.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 861...
VALID 241955Z - 242130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 861 CONTINUES.
WIDELY SCATTERED DISCRETE CELLS -- SOME OF WHICH HAVE SHOWN
INTERMITTENT LOW LEVEL ROTATION -- CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD TO NNWWD
ACROSS WW AREA. MOST INTENSE OF THESE DURING LAST 1-2 HOURS HAS
RESULTED IN AT LEAST TWO TORNADO REPORTS OVER PORTIONS ELMORE/COOSA
COUNTIES AL.
19Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED PRONOUNCED AXIS OF SFC HEATING -- WITH
TEMPS MID 80S F -- NEAR VPS-MGM-TCL LINE. TWO SFC TROUGHS WERE
ANALYZED -- ONE EXTENDING ESEWD FROM SERN MS WHERE FAY IS
CENTERED...TO NEAR MAI...N OF WHICH SFC WINDS BACK FROM SLY TO SELY.
NRN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTER NEWD TO NEAR EET-AND-VPC...N OF WHICH
WINDS BACK FURTHER TO NELY. EACH TROUGH SHOULD PIVOT NWD AROUND ERN
SEMICIRCLE OF CIRCULATION. MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF
SHEAR...BUOYANCY...AND RELATIVELY DISCRETE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR
SUPERCELLS CONTINUES TO SHIFT NWWD ACROSS WW AREA...GENERALLY NEAR
NRN SFC TROUGH AND INVOF THERMAL AXIS. THREAT MAY SHIFT NWWD
OVER/PAST BHM AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST AROUND 250-700 J/KG MLCAPE AND 150-250 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH
OVERLAPPING OVER THIS AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH
SLOWLY WITH TIME BUT REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.
THEREFORE...POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR SMALL SUPERCELLS AND A FEW MORE
TORNADOES.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE GENERALLY IS INCREASING OVER SERN
PORTION OF WW AND ADJACENT AREAS OF FL PANHANDLE...LOW LEVEL WINDS
AND SIZE OF HODOGRAPHS IS DECREASING PER TRENDS IN VWP. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE FROM HERE ON...AS CENTER OF FAY CONTINUES TO FILL AND MOVE
SLOWLY FARTHER AWAY FROM THIS AREA. TORNADO POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY
WILL BECOME MORE MRGL/CONDITIONAL WITH TIME OVER SERN AL AND SWRN
GA...BUT SLOWLY. THEREFORE WW SHOULD BE CLEARED WITH CAUTION.
..EDWARDS.. 08/24/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...
31438652 31948680 32588715 33308808 33668821 34148763
33908654 33548552 32768485 31848483 31238490 31088556
31188638
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