SWODY2
SPC AC 181706
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN FL PENINSULA...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE NATION...THOUGH WITHIN THE
RIDGE...FAY WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND A WEAK UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MEANDER IN THE SRN PLAINS. ON
OPPOSITE SIDES OF THE UPPER RIDGE...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...WHILE
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND.
...ERN FL PENINSULA...
FAY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SHIFT NWD AND MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS THE
W CENTRAL FL PENINSULA ON TUESDAY...AND THEN HEAD NNEWD INTO NRN FL
BY EARLY WED MORNING. INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL
AND INCREASING WINDS/SHEAR WILL PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY WITHIN CONVECTIVE
BANDS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN REGION OF GREATER LOWER
LEVEL SHEAR.
...NRN ROCKIES...
MODELS SUGGEST A STRONG VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX...EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE SCALE TROUGH...WILL MOVE FROM SERN
ORE INTO SRN ID LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DESPITE STEEP MID/HIGH LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER...WHICH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY.
STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR...40-50
KT...FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...BUT ONLY
LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST ATTM GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEAK
INSTABILITY.
...ELSEWHERE...
A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW ENGLAND UPPER
TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND WWD INTO THE
OH/UPPER MS VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
FROM APPROXIMATELY 20Z-03Z.
..IMY.. 08/18/2008
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