SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181717
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-181845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY...MUCH OF VT AND NH...WRN AND NRN ME
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181717Z - 181845Z
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. WW MAY BE NEEDED.
STRONG HEATING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND...WITH
TEMPERATURES NOW NEAR/APPROACHING 80 IN MOST AREAS. THIS COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S IS YIELDING GENERALLY 500 TO
1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE -- WITH MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
NRN HALF OF NY AND INTO VT ATTM.
WHILE MODERATE/WSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS INDICATED ACROSS THIS
REGION...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS TO THE NW -- ACROSS
ONTARIO/QUEBEC -- CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES SEWD WITH TIME...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE -- BECOMING MORE SUPPORTIVE OF STORM
ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. AS
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE UVV AND DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT
STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE -- POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE.
..GOSS.. 08/18/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
47506947 47166790 44446983 43407273 43437509 44047618
45087488 45067139 45937044
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