SWODY3
SPC AC 070724
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT THU AUG 07 2008
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD ON THE LARGE
SCALE...WITH TROUGHS REMAINING OVER BOTH THE ERN CONUS AND THE
WEST...WITH A RIDGE IN BETWEEN. THE WRN TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY...AS IT BECOMES SHUNTED A BIT NEWD BY THE PERSISTENT RIDGE
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ERN U.S. TROUGH.
AT THE SURFACE...A BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD LINGER FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...BUT A SECOND...W-E FRONT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS THIS PERIOD.
...NRN PLAINS...
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS DAY
3...INVOF A W-E BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THIS
REGION. AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES ACROSS THIS REGION...THE FRONT
SHOULD FOCUS STORM DEVELOPMENT -- MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT.
MODERATE /25 TO 30 KT/ MID-LEVEL NWLYS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION
-- IN THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ERN TROUGH AND
ROCKIES RIDGE -- SHOULD YIELD AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ONE OR MORE MCSS COULD DEVELOP/SPREAD SEWD
ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY REGION...WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND/HAIL. ATTM...WILL INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITY...BUT PARTS OF THE REGION INVOF THE ERN DAKOTAS/SRN
MN/NERN NEB/IA COULD REQUIRE AN UPGRADE IN LATER FORECASTS IF SEVERE
MCS DEVELOPMENT BECOMES MORE OF A CERTAINTY.
..GOSS.. 08/07/2008
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