SWOD48
SPC AC 070855
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT THU AUG 07 2008
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY CONTINUES WITHIN THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS
THIS FORECAST -- EVEN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. DAY 4 /SUN. AUG.
10/...THE GFS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LEE TROUGH...WITH SOME
ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
ECMWF HOWEVER PROGS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LOW OVER SWRN OK/WRN N
TX...WITH A SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD
INTO CO. DAY 5 /MON. AUG. 11/...THE GFS SHIFTS LEE-SIDE LOW
PRESSURE EWD...DEPICTING A 999 MB SURFACE LOW OVER WRN IL AND A
FRONT TRAILING WSWWD ACROSS MO/NRN OK BY THE END OF DAY 5.
MEANWHILE... THE ECMWF SHOWS NO SUCH LOW -- WITH ONLY A LINGERING
W-E BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO HIGHLIGHT ANY
POSSIBLE AREAS OF CONCENTRATED SEVERE THREAT THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 08/07/2008
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