SWODY3
SPC AC 160720
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2008
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NERN U.S...
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A WELL DEFINED UPPER
SPEED MAX WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND BY THE
END OF THE DAY3 PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SERN CANADA TO A POSITION ALONG THE U.S. BORDER AROUND 19/06Z.
STRONG HEATING ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND DEEP WLY FLOW WILL UNDOUBTEDLY
AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT WITHIN A
MODESTLY SHEARED DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE FORCING EXPECTED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY EMERGE BY EARLY
EVENING WITH SEWD PROPAGATION EXPECTED INTO UPSTATE NY...VT/NH AND
EVENTUALLY ME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY CAN SPREAD INTO THIS REGION...AND BE MAINTAINED WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THEN A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE WARRANTED IN
LATER OUTLOOKS.
...SRN ROCKIES...
BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FLOW FOR
MULTI-CELL OR PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM INTO
WEST TX MONDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...HEATING
AND TERRAIN WILL LIKELY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION.
...FL...
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FL MONDAY. INCREASING SHEAR PROFILES WITHIN THE RIGHT
FORWARD-REAR QUAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR AT
LEAST ORGANIZED BANDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS. WILL HOLD OFF
ISSUING ANY RISK OF SEVERE ACROSS THIS REGION UNTIL CLOSER TO
LANDFALL.
..DARROW.. 08/16/2008
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