SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160714
TXZ000-NMZ000-160815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PORTION OF THE TX PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 835...
VALID 160714Z - 160815Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 835
CONTINUES.
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT /MAINLY HAIL/ REMAINS WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING
DISORGANIZATION/LOSS OF INTENSITY WITH ONGOING STORMS COMBINED WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOPS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE TSTM
COMPLEX MOVING SEWD THROUGH PARMER TO SWISHER COUNTIES...SUGGEST A
DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO AN APPARENT MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING INTO W TX
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN ONGOING CLUSTER OF TSTMS
MOVING SEWD THROUGH EXTREME ERN NM AND W TX. ALTHOUGH ESELY LOW
LEVEL WINDS AT 25-30 KT BENEATH MODEST WNWLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE
MAINTAINING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...DECREASING
INSTABILITY TO BELOW 1000 J/KG ACROSS W TX IS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS. WEAKER INSTABILITY EXISTS
ACROSS THE NERN PART OF WW 835...EAST OF A LINE FROM BRISCOE TO KING
COUNTIES...WITH THIS AREA LIKELY TO BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO THE 09Z
EXPIRATION.
..PETERS.. 08/16/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
34390295 34410282 34740254 34730004 32949999 32950304
33980305
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