SWODY3
SPC AC 300730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF
COAST STATES...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH SPREADING EASTWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH A SLOW EAST-MOVING COLD FRONT
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. FARTHER
EAST...EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHILE
HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN AS IT APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
...CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...
IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH/MAKE
LANDFALL ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION ON MONDAY...SEE NHC FORECASTS
FOR THE LATEST DETAILS. ACCORDINGLY...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS/SRH ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE FRONT-RIGHT QUADRANT OF GUSTAV WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
...EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
LARGELY PARALLEL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MAKE A SLOW EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. AIDED BY LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT OWING TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. WHILE SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...MODEST INSTABILITY/WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND FRONT-LAGGING SHEAR IMPLIES THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK
WILL REMAIN MARGINAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
..GUYER.. 08/30/2008
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