SWOD48
SPC AC 300820
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008
VALID 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES...WHILE THE EASTERN STATES BROAD UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SIMILAR TO DAY
3/MONDAY...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE FOCUSED ALONG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS ON DAY 4/TUESDAY...BUT AN
APPRECIABLE/OVERLY ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK IS NOT EXPECTED.
WITH THE FORECAST LANDFALL OF GUSTAV ON DAY 3/MONDAY -- SEE LATEST
NHC GUIDANCE FOR DETAILS -- ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY AT LEAST DAY 4/TUESDAY AND PERHAPS DAY 5/WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY/MID-SOUTH REGION AS GUSTAV MOVES
INLAND/WEAKENS. HOWEVER...INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE
POSITIONING/TIMING OF GUSTAV PRECLUDES SEVERE/TORNADO PROBABILITIES
AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL SYSTEM HANNA MAY ALSO EVENTUALLY BE A FACTOR
FOR TORNADOES /INITIALLY ACROSS FL/ BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK PER
LATEST NHC FORECASTS...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
..GUYER.. 08/30/2008
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